• Bob Brooks

Impeachment/Removal of President Trump- What Are the Chances?

The political drama has gotten thick and we are still 13 months out from the election. Can you imagine what it will look like next year? In fact, as I am writing this, another whistle blower has just come forward stating that they have more evidence of wrong doing by President Trump. 

Here is what we know:

President Trump had a phone call with the President of Ukraine
We have the transcript from the phone call
The Democrats are trying to impeach a sitting President 
Only two other Presidents have been impeached - Bill Clinton and Andrew Jackson
No sitting President has ever been removed from office through impeachment

Most important,

We have two parties fighting for the soul of America and anything goes in this fight...

Thus everything is pure speculation as to what happens.  

Knowing that the likelihood of President Trump being voted out of office by the Republican controlled Senate is unlikely, the democrats might have another purpose for this charade. Maybe this is all about clearing out Biden from the race and making way for Elizabeth Warren and a socialism grassroots march that is square in the heart of this fight for America's soul.   

Maybe this is all about creating an element of Trump doubt going into the election to prepare for (dare I say it) Michelle Obama and another 4 years of an Obama Presidency?

Maybe the idea of removal of office doesn't have such a low odds potential? If you will recall, the Republicans barely put up a fight against the democrats as they took over the healthcare system. I remember being shocked that the Republicans as a body of leaders gave up the fight so easily. Could the same thing happen here? Nothing would surprise me.  

It is all speculation. Here is something that might not be speculation - the ups and downs of the political process has great potential to disrupt the markets because anything other than a second term for Trump...the market is not prepared for. Wall Street hates surprises. Wall Street who has enjoyed an almost 3 year party will especially dislike a Presidency that wants to remove the punch bowl from the party.