I don't even know where to begin. I have said many times that the most manipulated number is the unemployment numbers. Last Friday, the government announced that the economy created a lot of new jobs - 372,000 jobs. Is the job market that strong? Walk through the following numbers with me. Does this look like an economy that can produce 372,000 new jobs?
“The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, and demand for labor is slowing, with layoffs surging to a 16-month high in June as aggressive monetary policy tightening from the Federal Reserve stokes recession fears.”- Reuters.
First-quarter economic growth was estimated to be over 1%. It was actually -1.5%. Two consecutive quarterly declines in economic growth mean we are in a recession. The next quarterly number is coming out at the end of this month. There is a good chance that it is going to be negative again, which would mean we are already in a recession. What happens in times of recession? Employers tend to not hire in order to see how the potential impact of a recession plays out. They certainly don't hire large amounts of new employees.
Inflation is at 40-year highs.
Mortgage pre-payments have fallen 62% from a year ago.
Consumer sentiment plunged to a record low in June, dating back to the 70s – this measures the confidence of consumers and spending money.
Finally, there is a better chance we are in a recession than not.
On Friday, the government announced job creation of 372,000 jobs? A healthy job number would signify strength in the economy. There are a lot of advantages for the government to create that optic. The problem is that other indicators just don't support that type of job growth.
How gullible do they think the American people actually are? (Maybe that is a question for Captain Obvious).